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USD/JPY has surged towards the key 156.13/50 resistance zone after a hawkish Fed rate hike reinforced the US dollar's yield advantage. Attention now turns to Japan CPI and the BoJ, where an expected hike to 1.25% may not be enough to strengthen the yen unless Governor Ueda signals further tightening. Technically, bearish RSI divergence raises reversal risk, with 155.45 acting as the key downside trigger.

EUR/USD holds near a two-week high around 1.1640 ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision, with markets expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.50%. Attention is on Christine Lagarde's guidance as surging energy prices revive inflation risks and raise the possibility of further tightening. Technically, EUR/USD has moved back above its 200-day MA, with 1.1604 acting as the key short-term support.

USD/JPY has staged a major bearish reversal, breaking below its 200-day moving average as the Japanese yen strengthens sharply. Support from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for Japanese action, hawkish BoJ commentary and renewed FX intervention risk have reinforced the move. USD/JPY may see an oversold bounce, but failure to reclaim 158.04/50 could expose 155.03 and 153.84 as the next downside targets.

NVIDIA heads into Q2 FY2027 earnings as the market’s key test of whether AI infrastructure demand is still accelerating fast enough to justify its US$5 trillion-plus valuation. Traders will focus on Data Centre revenue, Blackwell and Rubin execution, gross margins, Q3 guidance and AI capex sustainability. Technically, a breakout above 216.40 could revive the medium-term uptrend, while a daily close below 195.95 would weaken the bullish reversal case.

Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a major bullish breakout, surging 4.35% on 19 August for its largest one-day gain since February 2026. The rally reflects growing US dollar debasement and fiscal-dominance concerns following larger US Treasury bond buybacks. Technical momentum remains bullish above the $4,434/$4,405 pivotal support, while a sustained break above $4,504 could reinforce the advance towards $4,580 and $4,640.

GBP/USD remains firm ahead of the US CPI release after breaking above a key medium-term descending trendline following last Friday’s US NFP. Sterling’s near-term bullish momentum remains intact above the 1.3479 pivotal support, with upside targets at 1.3547, 1.3580 and 1.3643. A hotter-than-expected US core CPI could revive Fed rate-hike expectations and US dollar strength, while softer inflation may reinforce GBP/USD’s bullish breakout.

USD/JPY’s three-day rebound is showing signs of exhaustion near the key 158.55 inflexion level ahead of the US non-farm payrolls release. The narrowing 2-year UST-JGB yield spread, a potential bearish flag and weakening hourly RSI momentum suggest renewed downside risks for USD/JPY. A break below the 157.95 downside trigger could expose 157.30 and 156.32, while a move above 158.55 may extend the rebound towards 159.45.

Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings will be closely watched as investors assess whether the software giant can convert record AI infrastructure spending into stronger Azure growth, Copilot monetisation, and free cash flow. With Microsoft's Capex-to-Revenue ratio reaching a record high among the Magnificent 7 and technical indicators turning increasingly bearish, traders will focus on whether management's guidance can justify its elevated AI investment strategy.

Intel reports its Q2 2026 earnings with investors closely watching whether its AI-driven turnaround can justify its 172% year-to-date rally. Beyond headline EPS and revenue, traders will focus on Data Centre and AI growth, capital expenditure, free cash flow, and management guidance. With technical indicators weakening and AI spending coming under greater scrutiny following Alphabet's earnings, Intel faces a critical test of both fundamentals and market sentiment.

The Nasdaq 100 is showing signs of increasing technical and fundamental weakness as AI infrastructure stocks lose momentum and semiconductor volatility accelerates. Leveraged unwinding in memory-chip leaders, concerns over rising capital expenditure, and delayed AI monetisation are weighing on valuations. Discover why the 28,200 support level is a critical technical trigger and how semiconductor weakness could drive a broader multi-week correction in US technology stocks.