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The yen’s medium-term outlook remains constructive, but much of the expected Bank of Japan tightening may already be priced in. With weak consumption limiting the scope for aggressive rate hikes, USD/JPY may consolidate near 155 unless the BoJ or Japan’s GPIF provides a fresh catalyst.

Gold is undergoing a shallow correction ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. A neutral stance on easing financial conditions could support another test of USD 4,775 and USD 4,890 per ounce. A hawkish message, however, could revive expectations of a September rate hike, strengthen the dollar and trigger a deeper pullback.

A sharp rise in US Treasury yields dominated the week before the Treasury Department expanded its long-term bond buyback programme. The move improved market liquidity and briefly reduced borrowing costs, but also weakened the dollar. With oil prices elevated and US debt exceeding USD40 trillion, investors are questioning whether Washington is becoming more willing to tolerate currency depreciation in order to stabilise the bond market.

The dollar remains supported by relatively hawkish Fed expectations, but this advantage may weaken. A US-Iran de-escalation could lower energy prices and inflation risks, reducing the case for further US tightening. If markets begin to price a softer Fed policy path, the dollar could come under pressure and EUR/USD could gradually move higher.